Prediction 1. The ease of app development will be the most disruptive force of GAI.
Models like Claude significantly lower the barriers to entry for software development—by making it infinitely easier and faster to build.
When everyone can program, a plethora of apps is bound to flood the market, causing massive disruption for easily replicable products. A model to access Bloomberg-like information and analysis? Done. A price-comparison tool like PriceRunner? Done. A dating app like Tinder? Done. A music streaming app like Spotify? Done. Health platforms, system testing, marketing dashboards… any platform? Done.
Of course, this must be taken with a grain of salt. “Moats” such as network effects and proprietary data are becoming increasingly vital. You can’t easily copy Bloomberg’s extensive data network and APIs or Spotify’s music licenses. But the technical barrier to building the software itself? That is certainly gone.
Ultimately, this force will drastically increase competition. Because the product itself is highly replicable, the battleground shifts. Strong marketing strategies, brand awareness, and user trust are no longer just nice-to-haves—they are becoming increasingly vital for software firms in the AI era.
This is already reflected in saas/software consultancy companies, which increasingly are selling products instead of hour.
Prediction 2. The cost of GAI as an everyday tool, will significantly increase
Most likely using the best AI tools will be significantly more expensive than today – and will be consolidated between a few big players. Custom AIs will still play a role. As happens naturally with these highly competetive industries, is that they fight for marketshare – and after a while this fight turns into consolidation – which in turns decreases competition and in turn increases profitability – by increasing sale prices.